Corona Virus: Reproduction Number Estimated More Precisely

KIT Researchers Develop New Method with Acausal 7-day Filter to Determine the R Number of Infectious Diseases.

The Corona virus pandemic continues to influence our lives. Daily, new information and latest figures are published. Apart from the number of new cases, the reproduction number R is considered an important indicator of the infection situation. The reproduction number indicates how many persons on the average are infected by an infected person. If R is higher than 1, the number of daily new infections increases, thus attracting particular public attention. The reproduction number is of high importance to coping with the pandemic. Its estimation using mathematical models, however, is subject to uncertainties, among others because the reported cases are dependent on the day of the week and local outbreaks make the number increase sharply. Researchers of KIT’s Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics (IAI) have now developed a method to estimate a time-dependent reproduction number R that prevents undesired time delays and compensates weekly periodicities. Their method is presented in a publication of KIT, with SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 being used as an example. In addition, they use data published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

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