Pushing the Limits of Forecasting Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal


In light of the changes in global climate patterns, predications become even more important. In response to the limitations of existing models, a revolutionary approach has been developed to overcome these challenges, relying on nonlinear dynamics theory and nonlinear phenomena in statistical physics. Such a strategy opens possibilities for long-term predictions in meteorology and climate science. It applies to cases when the numerical models fail, particularly the monsoon timing prediction.

Dr. Elena Surovyatkina’s lecture will promote understanding of the essential physical mechanisms of the nonlinear nature of monsoon arrival and withdrawal is crucial, to allow for explaining the abrupt nature, spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and interannual variability of monsoon timing.

The lecture will be followed by a workshop on capacity building.

Event Information

October 19, 2023

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida
Organizer(s): Leibniz Association and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

The lecture is a part of a series of lectures, workshops and roundtables by Dr. Elena Surovyatkina regarding forecasting monsoon onset and withdrawal. She is set to visit the following higher education institutes:

  • University of Delhi
  • The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
  • India Meteorological Department, Mumbai
  • Banaras Hindu University
  • Institute of Environment & Sustainable Development, DST – Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change, Banaras Hindu University, India